Week 9 Preview & Cheering Guide
I've run the CFL Simulations once again. Due to the season being half over, it takes far less time which is nice and also allows me to begin to pump up the number of sims run. It should lead to more stable results.
That said, here is the updated playoff & Grey Cup chances:
That said, here is the updated playoff & Grey Cup chances:
Hamilton cemented themselves atop the East, gaining 7% playoff probability with an easy win over Ottawa. They also get another week closer to having either Jeremiah Masoli or Dane Evans step back in, which would be a big boon to the offence.
Toronto won a big game against Montreal, as they now take control of the 2nd spot in the East.
Saskatchewan won a thriller in BC, and gained some playoff probability, but the loss did not knock BC as much as it could have, as they played a pretty good "predictive" game (ie poor special teams play does not predict future poor special teams play), and their main crossover rival (Montreal) lost, and thus, they only moved down to 90% to make the playoffs.
Winnipeg remains the favourites for the Grey Cup.
A crossover happens ~30% of the time now.
Toronto won a big game against Montreal, as they now take control of the 2nd spot in the East.
Saskatchewan won a thriller in BC, and gained some playoff probability, but the loss did not knock BC as much as it could have, as they played a pretty good "predictive" game (ie poor special teams play does not predict future poor special teams play), and their main crossover rival (Montreal) lost, and thus, they only moved down to 90% to make the playoffs.
Winnipeg remains the favourites for the Grey Cup.
A crossover happens ~30% of the time now.
Playoff Implication Graphs
These are new here, and show how much a game matters to a given team. Reading this is pretty straightforward. The title indicates the pre-game playoff chance for each team, while each graph shows the change in playoff chance depending on which team wins. So, for example, below, an Ottawa win benefits Ottawa but also Montreal, as their main crossover rival is Edmonton. Edmonton would lose ~13% playoff probability in a loss to Ottawa.
Winnipeg vs BC matters a lot for BC, if they lose, it benefits almost every single other team (imo SSK should be positive, likely just a sample issue). Winnipeg is sitting pretty at 99% to make the playoffs, and thus, they cannot really move from that position with a win or loss. Montreal would enjoy a Winnipeg win to help scare away the West -> East crossover.
This feels like a make or break game for Montreal. They can swing 10% in either direction depending on the result. A loss would leave the door open for Ottawa (not sure if they can go through doors though) as well as Edmonton.
Edmonton should be rooting for their "friends" in Calgary, as a win by the Stamps moves the Elks up ~7% to make the playoffs, while a loss moves Edmonton down 5%. As well, the Stampeders would be all but out of it with a loss, as their chance to make the playoff would reside at 7%. As well, it is worth noting that Calgary does not play Edmonton the rest of the way. As such, a Calgary win usually makes my model like them more, so their remaining games against Western teams would be closer to 5050. This also benefits Edmonton, who will need Winnipeg, BC, and Saskatchewan to drop some games if they want to make the playoffs.
